Brinksmanship?

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Brinksmanship?

Even after the South Korean live fire tests were completed without immediate retaliation by the North - despite earlier dire warnings than they would respond in an unpredictable way that might include nuclear weapons - many of us were still holding our breath.

However, the North made it clear that the live fire had not landed in any disputed areas and so they saw no reason to respond - and we all breathed a sigh of relief.

So, it is with a certain amount of alarm that I note that the stakes are to be raised.

South Korea is to hold its largest-ever live-fire drill near North Korea in a big show of force including land and sea military exercises.
Starting tomorrow the land drill will involve artillery, fighter jets and the largest number of personnel in a peace-time exercise.
South Korea is also holding three days of live-firing drills involving at least six naval boats off the peninsula's east coast starting today.
An army spokesman reportedly said that the scale will be enormous employing six times the normal K-9 mechanised artillery and live fire choppers and F-15 jets.

It is the maritime Northern Limit Line unilaterally imposed by the US that is causing all the trouble as it abandons the almost diagonal DMZ and curves around to follow the northern coast. South Korea accept this line whereas the North claim a Military Demarcation Line which approximates the diagonal DMZ into the Yellow Sea and so leads to five disputed islands between the US NLL and the North Korean MDL.
Not knowing anything of the history I must say the American NLL does not appear to be equitable and I can see why the North are unwilling to accept it.

This is one of those times when a picture is worth a thousand words so check out the link below and see what you think.

http://38north.org/2010/07/the-maritime-boundary-between-north-south-kor...

The South also erected a massive Christmas tree close to the border. A gesture of goodwill no doubt. Apparently it's only provocation if the North does it.
Mangone, Korea is an interesting topic. My father served in the Army during the Korean conflict and I have many close friends who have been stationed there (mostly from the 60's & 70's. You make a few factual assumptions that aren't accurate. First of all, the US does not unilaterally impose a boundary. The US is there under a treaty agreement with South Korea. The boundaries are very well defined in the UN armistice agreement which you can read here. http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Korean_Armistice_Agreement Another misconception and something you don't seem to be aware of with your statements is that South Korea was assisted by the UNITED NATIONS, and it was not a US only operation. Of all belligerent nations, South Korea was assisted by over a dozen countries, including the US, United Kingdom, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Netherlands and many others. North Korea was assisted by China, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Soviet Union (obviously, Communist bloc countries) The two Korea's are still technically at war. The issues separating the two nations have not been resolved. The United States and South Korea signed a Mutual Defense Treaty in 1953. It's a fairly basic treaty, and the United States has lived up to its' responsibilities under that treaty and from all appearances it will continue to live up to the terms of that treaty. Now, the island that was in the news last month is not in dispute. That island is clearly denoted in the Armistice agreement as to be in the possession of United Nations/South Korea. I've confirmed this myself by looking at the lat/long of all listed coastal islands and there's no question about it. Now, from an anecdotal standpoint(from my father and my peers who've been stationed there over the years.) The North Korean military is an exceptionally belligerent entity. There have been many many instances of them firing over the fence line, most of which you don't hear or read about in the news, and this has been going on for years and years. US soldiers have been killed, South Korean soldiers have been killed. There have also been cases where the South Koreans have fired across the fence line. And it is quite probable that even US troops have fired across the fence line. The DMZ is a live fire zone and even something like a spotlight directed in the wrong direction can piss someone with a rifle off. It is a very very tense and hair trigger situation. The fact that full scale combat hasn't broken out already is a testament to China and the US getting involved. If it was left solely to the two Korean countries, there would be open warfare in progress at this very moment. And Chuck...the UN armistice doesn't specify a specific distance from the border that a Christmas tree must be erected. Therefore, one can assume that it's okay so long as it isn't on the other side of the border. I personally don't find a tree to be a provocation, but you may, since it's obvious that anything involving the United States is going to come under the excessive scrutiny of left leaning British pundits. Fortunately for South Korea, they don't have to rely on the British for much of anything related to national defense, and British big mouths don't really change the picture one way or the other for those actually involved on the ground. Share your state secrets at... http://www.amerileaks.org

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Not sure why you need to drag Britain and the US into this. South Korea is a sovereign nation. Surely the decision to conduct military exercises and erect a large Christmas tree on the border was theirs alone. Not provocative at all. Tis the season of good will. Try to go easy on the editing. It gets hard to keep up.
Sorry about the editing thing. It's not easy to see what I've done on my Blackberry until after I've posted it. Share your state secrets at... http://www.amerileaks.org

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Well the Christmas tree/military exercise combo certainly makes for an interesting message. Kinda like come to Jesus or else.
Assuming there is a Christmas tree and assuming there is a message being projected, I would venture a guess that the message to the North Korean Army is a very simple sentiment of "Fuck You" When I was in Cuba, that was a consistent message transmitted across the "zone" from both sides and just about anywhere else there is a "zone", the sentiment is universal. Often times an additional sentiment is projected as well. That would be... "come and get some" Looks like nobody want's to come and get some doesn't it? The exercise by South Korea illustrates just that. The exercise is probably saying something like this... "Fuck you assholes. Don't like it, come and get some. When you come get some, we're gonna stomp your ass into the frozen mud." The fact that the North Korean's turned down the invitation to "go get some" is indicative that there is sufficient deterrence to keep a war from breaking out. Now, lets take Wiki-creep Assange out there to the DMZ and see if he can fast talk the Koreans into thinking differently. There's a dirt road between fence lines where he can walk up and down the road with a bullhorn, talking his talk and walking his walk. I'm wondering how long he'd last. Share your state secrets at... http://www.amerileaks.org

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“The 1953 Armistice Agreement which was signed by both North Korea and the United Nations Command, ended the Korean War and specified that the five islands including Yeonpyeong Island, Baengnyeong Island would remain under United Nations Command and South Korean control. However, THEY DID NOT AGREE on a maritime demarcation line, primarily because the United Nations Command wanted to base it on three nautical miles of territorial waters, while North Korea wanted to use twelve nautical miles.” "Whilst the NLL was drawn up at a time when a three nautical mile territorial waters limit was the norm, by the 1970s a twelve nautical mile limit had became internationally accepted, and the enforcement of the NLL prevented North Korea, in areas, from accessing significant territorial waters (arguably actual or prospective). In 1973, North Korea began disputing the NLL. Later, after the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the NLL also hindered North Korea's ability to establish an Exclusive Economic Zone to control fishing in the area." "It is unclear when North Korea was informed of the existence of the NLL. Many sources suggest this was done promptly, but in 1973 Deputy Secretary of State Kenneth Rush stated, in a now declassified, "Joint State-Defense Message" to the U.S. Embassy in Seoul that "We are aware of no evidence that NLL has ever been officially presented to North Korea.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Limit_Line Here's a second link to the map for those who wish to see why the North are not happy about the NLL. http://38north.org/2010/07/the-maritime-boundary-between-north-south-kor... So who is the United Nations Command (Korea)? "The United Nations Command (Korea) is the unified command structure for the multinational military forces supporting the Republic of Korea (South Korea or ROK) during and after the Korean War. In the confusion of the early days of the Korean War, Seoul placed its armed forces under the command of General Douglas MacArthur. This arrangement continued after the armistice. For some twenty-five years, the United Nations Command headquarters, which had no South Korean officers in it, was responsible for the defense of South Korea, with operational control over a majority of the units in the South Korean military. The command was the primary peacetime planning organization for allied response to a North Korean invasion of South Korea and the principal wartime command organization for all South Korean and United States forces involved in defending South Korea. In 1978 a binational headquarters, the South Korea-United States Combined Forces Command (CFC), was created, and the South Korean military units with front-line missions were transferred from the UN Command to the CFC's operational control. The commander in chief of the CFC, a United States military officer, answered ultimately to the national command authorities of the United States and the Republic of Korea. Under the law, the Commander, US Forces Korea, is dual-hatted as Commander of the ROK-US CFC. The Deputy Commander is a 4-star general from the ROK Army, who is also dual-hatted as the ground forces component commander."
King of the road, Roger Miller, who also famously sang “England Swings…“ chose to go to war rather than go to jail for stealing a guitar and later joked “My education was Korea, class of 52.” Perhaps his army experiences caused him to sing the song Ruby (don’t take your love to town) written by Mel Tillis, with extra emotion and that's why Kenny Rogers was attracted to the song. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XruZm0oB0Fw I’m something of a Country music fan and while watching a Kenny Rogers TV special in which people phoned up to ask Kenny to sing their favourite song I discovered that Kenny had heard Roger singing the song and wanted to record it himself. By that time the Vietnam war was on everyone’s mind and since the lyrics could easily mislead listeners into thinking it was referring to the Vietnam war, rather than the Korean, everyone advised Kenny not to record Ruby because they were sure no-one would play it. I suppose it wouldn’t go down well to have a song about someone who fought in ‘that crazy Asian war’ - who lost the use of his legs and is losing his wife - at such a time. Not to be put off Kenny went to England and recorded it on the Tom Jones Show which was aired in the US and, of course, it went on to be one of his greatest hits. Only goes to show that attempting to suppress things can sometimes have the opposite effect :O)
Property in Seoul (very close to the DMZ) is considerably more desirable on the south side of the Han river. Quite what help they think it's going to be in the event of a NK invasion/shelling, I don't know. Although it is an impressively sizeable river ... From my experience, South Korean people are very kind, hospitable and generous in so many respects, and it's a beautiful (if slightly strange) country. The trouble is that their politicians don't tend to last very long in power unless they are seen to be facing off the north. This is, I suppose, the downside of democracy.

 

Mangone, I didn't miss the point at all. Your point, as I interpreted it, was that the US was creating a unilateral NLL in the waters off of western Korea in the Yellow sea around the coastal islands. The US didn't create anything, we're simply there under a treaty agreement to help defend South Korea. The NLL line is a matter for the UN South Korea and North Korea to determine. You also claim in your original post that there are 5 disputed islands. I don't see these islands possession status as being disputable, as everything seems to be covered by the Armistice agreement. Still, the North Koreans can dispute anything and there isn't much that can be done unless the dispute is resolved through either diplomatic or military means. Neither appear to be working at the moment. The real issue here seems to be navigable waters around these islands, to which you seemed to have morphed your argument (and properly so.) I also don't see a live fire military exercise by South Korea near the border or DMZ as being any more "Provocative" as a live artillery assault on one of the South Korean islands by the north in which civilians and military personnel were killed. I also wouldn't consider a live fire exercise near the border by South Korea to be as provocative as the North Korea Navy having a submarine torpedoing and sinking a South Korean patrol vessel, killing a number of South Korean sailors. I personally think South Korea has shown a great deal of restraint over the years. Discussing things is okay, but your argumental pov seems to be biased towards making incorrect and negatively biased assumptions about the motives and roles of the South Koreans and US Military. You seem quite reluctant to address anything the communist dictator in North Korea has been doing, which leads me to believe that you sympathize with the North Korean cause and are not an impartial commentator at all. Is this true? Or maybe, you just want to find some way to bitch about the United States, and this makes a convenient vehicle for your need to bitch about something that doesn't even involve you at any level. If it was a perfect world, there wouldn't be a conflict here. Everybody would be dancing together in the streets singing songs and eating roasted pigs. The truth is, North Korea is a nasty country and the US is about the only country in the world capable of helping the South Koreans keep their sovereignty. Share your state secrets at... http://www.amerileaks.org

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http://www.amerileaks.org

You are probably right about the 'fuck you' message. This would be in line with Lee Myung-bak's reaction to the 'Sunshine' policy. But at the same time he talks about reunification. Maybe he's hoping the NK regime will just collapse. Can't see that happening myself because it wouldn't be in China's interest. It's all a bit too much for my little mind.
All I need to say is the ‘unilateral’ means one-sided and no-one disputes that the North Koreans DID NOT AGREE on a maritime demarcation line. It could be that the dispute over the islands is not who they belong to but whether, being so close to the North Korean coastline, they should be allowed to have artillery... or do live fire drills. After all, America didn’t take to well to Russia’s intention to locate missiles in Cuba! People can read our posts, look at the map, and make up their own minds. http://38north.org/2010/07/the-maritime-boundary-between-north-south-kor...
Mangone, I readily admit, I am biased. I am biased towards an American viewpoint and I'll argue that viewpoint. From your political viewpoint, which I'm assuming is far left, I'm no where near you. I am a American Libertarian, politically speaking so, you characterize and compartmentalize that all you like. As for Korea, the facts are out there, read them and believe what you want to believe. When you attack the United States, I'll speak up if I don't agree with your verbal attacks. Don't like it, tough shit. I have no use for ill informed bigoted xenophobes, particularly European versions. Share your state secrets at... http://www.amerileaks.org

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Military commanders from China and North Korea signed the agreement on one side, with the US-led United Nations Command signing on behalf of the international community. South Korea was NOT a signatory. The armistice was only ever intended as a temporary measure. The document, signed by US Lieutenant General William K Harrison and his counterpart from the North's army, General Nam Il, said it was aimed at a ceasefire "until a final peaceful settlement is achieved". However, that settlement never came, and a conference in Geneva in 1954 which was designed to thrash out a formal peace accord ended without agreement. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2774931.stm#map It's worth noting that neither side has stuck to the letter of the agreement. (Clause 13d) (Both sides shall) Cease the introduction into Korea of reinforcing combat aircraft, armored vehicles, weapons, and ammunition; provided however, that combat aircraft, armored vehicles, weapons, and ammunition which are destroyed, damaged, worn out, or used up during the period of the armistice may be replaced on the basis piece-for-piece of the same effectiveness and the same type. NB. In February 1975, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger wrote in a confidential cable, now declassified, that the "Northern Patrol Limit Line does not have international legal status ... Insofar as it purports unilaterally to divide international waters, it is clearly contrary to international law and USG Law of the Sea position." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Limit_Line I feel I should point out that I have not defended North Korea or attacked the US so far as I am aware. I set out to make the point that all this tension between the two sides has been making a lot of people nervous. After that it became a dispute between myself and Denver as to whether or not I had misrepresented the facts. I don’t think I have and I think the quotes I have linked demonstrate that. Since Henry Kissinger is not generally considered to be an ill informed bigoted European xenophobe :O) I would suggest that his belief that the NLL was ‘unilateral’ and illegal or ‘contrary to international law’ would reveal him as unAmerican in Denver‘s eyes. In the end I would say that I have backed up my original post in most respects and that the only real remaing bone of contention is whether the United Nations Command could be seen as essentially American. I think it could and was.
I must thank Denver for his masterful lampooning of the Sarah Palin, pit-bull style of argument: never mind the truth feel the aggression. It has helped not only to make many people laugh but also to reveal some of the facts behind issues that have been deliberately misrepresented by the right-wing praise the lord and pass the ammunition brigade. Merry Christmas RD - I hope you bag plenty more road signs :O)
Mangone, Don't change tactics. It's not manly. Share your state secrets at... http://www.amerileaks.org

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;O)
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