The Future of Dinosaurs (2022) David Hone.
Posted by celticman on Thu, 26 Feb 2026
I see dinosaurs every day. So do you. We call them birds. Hone addresses What We Don’t Know. What We Can, and What We’ll Never Know. He cites John Maynard Keynes Dictum: ‘When the facts change, I change my mind’.
The study of fossils from tens of millions and millions of years ago is finite. The number of palaeontologists studying dinosaurs Hone suggests would comfortably fit in a research institute in the UK studying health. China has the largest number of fossils (to date) and the largest number of researchers.
‘Filing in one gap in knowledge only tends to reveal another question’.
Hone charts the interest in ‘dinosaurs’ ‘fearfully great reptile’ or ‘terrible lizard’ from the interest in Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution and natural selection among gentleman scientists, which contradicted Biblical interpretations (and still do).
Notes.
1. Triassic Period (around 252–201 million years ago)
• Dinosaurs first appear around 230 million years ago.
• Early forms were small, agile, and competing with many other reptile groups.
• By the end of the Triassic, they begin to diversify after a major extinction event clears ecological space.
2. Jurassic Period (around 201–145 million years ago)
• Dinosaurs explode in diversity.
• Giant sauropods roam the land; early birds take to the skies.
• Continental drift begins shaping ecosystems.
3. Cretaceous Period (around 145–66 million years ago)
• Dinosaurs reach their peak.
• Tyrannosaurs, ceratopsians, hadrosaurs, and raptors dominate.
• Flowering plants appear, reshaping food webs.
4. End Cretaceous Mass Extinction (66 million years ago)
• A catastrophic asteroid impact triggers global collapse.
• Most dinosaur groups vanish—but one lineage survives.
5. Paleogene to Present
• Surviving dinosaurs evolve into modern birds.
• Today, more than 10,000 bird species represent the living dinosaur legacy.
| Group | Examples | Key Features |
|---|---|---|
| Thyreophora | Stegosaurus, Ankylosaurus | Armoured plates, tail clubs |
| Ornithopoda | Iguanodon, Hadrosaurus | Duck‑bills, complex chewing |
| Marginocephalia | Triceratops, Pachycephalosaurus | Frills, horns, domed skulls |
A. Sauropodomorpha
• Examples: Brachiosaurus, Diplodocus
• Traits: Long necks, pillar like legs, enormous size.
B. Theropoda
• Examples: Tyrannosaurus rex, Velociraptor, Allosaurus
• Traits: Mostly carnivorous, bipedal, sharp claws and teeth.
• Birds belong here—they are living theropods.
The disappearance of non‑avian dinosaurs wasn’t due to a single cause but a cascade of catastrophic events.
The Asteroid Impact (Primary Trigger)
Around 66 million years ago, a 10–12 km asteroid struck near modern‑day Yucatán.
Consequences included:
- Shockwaves and global wildfires
- Tsunamis
- Vaporised rock and sulphur thrown into the atmosphere
- Nuclear-winter effect blocking sunlight
Climate Collapse
With sunlight blocked:
• Photosynthesis crashed
• Food chains collapsed
• Temperatures plummeted
• Ecosystems destabilised worldwide
Large animals with high energy needs—like most dinosaurs—were hit hardest. Human survived in pockets but numbered only in tens of thousands worldwide.
Volcanic Activity (Deccan Traps)
Massive volcanic eruptions in India were already stressing global ecosystems:
• Pumping CO₂ and sulphur into the atmosphere
• Causing long term warming followed by cooling
• Acidifying oceans
The asteroid impact struck a world already stressed.
Why Birds (and Humans) Survived
Birds—small, adaptable theropods—had advantages:
• Ability to fly or escape rapidly
• Diverse diets (seeds, insects, carrion)
• Small body size requiring less food
• Nesting flexibility
• Some species capable of surviving in low light conditions
Their survival is why dinosaurs are still with us today. And why humans are causing the sixth-extinction event.
Birds are dinosaurs—specifically, they are the surviving lineage of theropod dinosaurs.
But they differ from their non‑avian relatives in several important ways.
And there is a missing link in explaining how one became the other.
Anatomy
Birds
- Lightweight, hollow bones
- Wings with fused digits
- Feathers specialised for flight
- Keeled breastbone for powerful flight muscles
- Beaks instead of teeth
- Highly efficient lungs with air sacs
Non‑avian dinosaurs
- Mostly heavier, solid bones
- Forelimbs not adapted for powered flight (except some feathered species)
- Teeth common
- No beaks (except a few herbivores)
- No keeled sternum
- Lung structure less specialised for continuous airflow
The ‘missing link’ between dinosaurs and birds is not a single species—it’s a transitional and hypothetical zone in time and geography.
Most likely location: Northeastern China (Liaoning Province)
- The region contains the Jehol Biota, a fossil treasure trove.
- Fine volcanic ash preserved feathers, soft tissues, and even colour patterns.
- It has produced dozens of feathered dinosaurs and early birds.
Key transitional species found there
- Archaeopteryx (Germany, but similar age) – classic early bird
- Anchiornis – feathered, four‑winged glider
- Microraptor – four‑winged dinosaur capable of gliding
-Confuciusornis – early beaked bird
- Sinosauropteryx – first non‑avian dinosaur with preserved feathers
These fossils show a step‑by‑step progression from ground‑running theropods to gliding forms to true powered fliers (in modelling theory).
Most fossils come from around 160–120 million years ago:
- early birds were evolving
- feathered dinosaurs were diversifying
- flight was emerging in multiple lineages
High diversity
The region was biologically rich—forests, lakes, insects, small mammals, and many small theropods.
This ecological complexity encouraged evolutionary experimentation and expansion.
no sharp dividing line where ‘dinosaur stops’ and ‘bird begins’.
Instead, we see:
- dinosaurs with feathers
- dinosaurs with wings
- dinosaurs that glide
- birds with teeth
- birds with long bony tails
- birds that couldn’t fly
Evolution blurred boundaries.
Dinosaurs ranged from chicken‑sized to longer than a blue whale. Birds today occupy only the smallest end of that spectrum.
A. Smallest Dinosaurs vs Smallest Birds
Group Example Size
Smallest non‑avian dinosaur Microraptor around1 kg, crow‑sized
Smallest modern bird Bee hummingbird 2 grams
Similarity: Both tiny, feathered, agile.
Difference: Even the smallest dinosaurs were much heavier than the tiniest birds.
B. Medium‑Sized Dinosaurs vs Medium Birds
Group Example Size Raptor dinosaurs Velociraptor around15–20 kg
Large modern birds Bald eagle around6 kg
A Velociraptor was roughly the size of a wolf — far larger than most birds of prey today.
C. Largest Dinosaurs vs Largest Birds
Largest dinosaurs Argentinosaurus 30–35 metres long, 60–80 tonnes
Largest modern bird (living) Ostrich 2.7 metres tall, 150 kg
Largest bird ever (extinct) Vorombe titan around 3 metres tall, 700–800 kg
Scale difference:
The largest dinosaurs were 400–500 times heavier than the largest birds ever known.
Birds today simply cannot reach dinosaurian sizes because:
- flight favours lightweight bodies
- warm‑blooded metabolism limits maximum mass
- egg‑laying constrains body size
How Did the Largest Dinosaurs Mate?
This is one of the great scientific mysteries — but we have strong, evidence‑based theories.
The challenge
A 70‑tonne sauropod (like Argentinosaurus) could not mount another without:
- crushing the partner
- breaking bones
- losing balance
So how did they do it?
Most likely mating method: Side‑by‑side alignment
Palaeontologists think the safest, most plausible method was:
Side‑by‑side positioning
- The male and female stood parallel.
- The male’s long, flexible tail moved aside.
- The male extended his cloaca (as birds and reptiles do).
- The female did the same.
- Contact was made without mounting.
This avoids catastrophic weight transfer.
Alternative theory: Partial mounting from behind
Some researchers propose:
- The male reared up slightly
- Used his massive tail as a counterbalance
- Placed only the front part of his body over the female
But this is biomechanically risky and less likely.
Why we’re confident
- Sauropod tails were extremely flexible
- Their hips were wide and stable
- Their reproductive anatomy was cloacal (like birds/crocodiles)
- No evidence of sexual dimorphism suggesting elaborate mating displays or structures
How Did the Largest Dinosaurs Raise Their Young?
They laid eggs — lots of them
Even the biggest dinosaurs laid eggs no larger than a football because:
- eggshells collapse under too much weight
- oxygen cannot diffuse through very thick shells
So instead of a few large babies, they produced:
- many small eggs
- large nesting colonies
Nesting behaviour
Evidence from fossil nesting sites (e.g., Maiasaura, Titanosaur nests) shows:
Communal nesting
Hundreds of individuals nesting together — like penguin colonies.
Shallow pits or mound nests
Sauropods likely dug simple pits or used vegetation to incubate eggs.
Limited parental care in giants
Small and medium dinosaurs (like Maiasaura) fed and protected their young.
But giant sauropods probably:
- laid eggs
- covered them
- left them to hatch
- relied on sheer numbers for survival
Their babies were:
- tiny compared to adults
- vulnerable to predation (cows for example have been shown eating new-born chicks).
- fast‑growing (some grew 2–3 tonnes per year)
Why little parental care?
A 70‑tonne adult couldn’t:
- sit on a nest
- stay near fragile hatchlings without crushing them
- forage enough food while guarding young
So their strategy was:
‘Lay many eggs, let many hatch, and let the survivors grow fast.”
Birds today are tiny compared to the giants of the dinosaur world, and while birds show intense parental care, the largest dinosaurs relied on mass egg‑laying and rapid growth — and they likely mated through careful side‑by‑side alignment to avoid catastrophic weight transfer.
Visual Size Analogy: Biggest Dinosaurs to Smallest Birds
1. Argentinosaurus (30–35 m long, 60–80 tonnes)
Visual analogy:
Imagine two full‑length articulated buses parked nose‑to‑tail.
Now imagine that whole double‑bus weighing as much as 12 African elephants combined.
That’s one Argentinosaurus.
2. Tyrannosaurus rex (12–13 m long, 8–10 tonnes)
Visual analogy:
Picture a London double‑decker bus.
A T. rex is about as long as the bus, but only about half as tall.
Weight‑wise, it’s like two large cars stacked together.
3. Triceratops (8–9 m long, 6–12 tonnes)
Visual analogy:
Think of a large delivery truck with a huge shield bolted to the front.
That’s roughly the footprint and mass of a Triceratops.
4. Velociraptor (0.5 m tall, 1.5–2 m long, 15–20 kg)
Visual analogy:
Forget the Jurassic Park version.
A real Velociraptor was the size of a big turkey with a long tail.
If you saw one today, you’d think:
Why is that angry turkey wearing feathers and got such big claws?
Microraptor (crow‑sized, around1 kg)
Visual analogy:
Imagine a crow with four wings — two on the arms, two on the legs.
That’s Microraptor, gliding between trees like a flying squirrel.
Ostrich (2.7 m tall, 150 kg)
Visual analogy:
The ostrich is the tallest and heaviest living bird,
but next to a sauropod it’s like comparing a motorbike to a freight train.
Bee Hummingbird (2 grams)
Visual analogy:
The smallest bird alive today weighs less than a penny
and is shorter than your little finger.
Great overhaul.
1. At the far end, two articulated buses fused together — Argentinosaurus.
2. Next, a double‑decker bus — T. rex.
3. Then a delivery truck — Triceratops.
4. A turkey — Velociraptor.
5. A crow — Microraptor.
6. An ostrich — biggest living bird.
7. A bee hummingbird — smallest living bird.
From 80 tonnes down to 2 grams.
From bus‑length giants to insect‑sized fliers.
That’s the full sweep of dinosaur‑to‑bird size evolution.
Studying dinosaurs isn’t just about T-Rex monsters — it’s one of the most useful scientific fields we have, because dinosaurs sit at the crossroads of biology, climate science, geology, evolution, and even modern technology. Their story helps us understand how life works, how Earth changes, and how species survive or disappear.
Understanding Evolution and How Life Adapts?
Dinosaurs show how life can diversify into thousands of forms over millions of years.
- Helps scientists understand how species evolve under pressure
- Shows how traits like feathers, warm‑bloodedness, and parental care emerged
- Provides clues about how modern animals might adapt to future climate change
Example
Feathered dinosaurs like Microraptor and Anchiornis reveal how flight evolved step‑by‑step, helping biologists understand the origins of birds.
Reconstructing Ancient Climates (Paleoclimate Science)
Dinosaur fossils are time capsules of past environments.
Why?
- Helps scientists model future climate change
- Shows how ecosystems respond to warming, cooling, and mass extinctions
- Reveals how continents moved and how habitats shifted
Example
Fossils of tropical dinosaurs found in Alaska show that the Arctic was once warm and forested — a key insight for climate modelling.
Understanding Mass Extinctions
The dinosaur extinction event is the best‑studied mass extinction in Earth’s history.
Why?
- Helps us understand how ecosystems collapse
- Shows how quickly life can rebound
- Helps predict risks from asteroids, volcanoes, and climate disruption
Example
The Chicxulub impact crater in Mexico teaches us how asteroid strikes affect the atmosphere, oceans, and global temperatures.
Past and Present Animals
Dinosaurs are the ancestors of birds — the most diverse group of land vertebrates today.
Why? Like Leonardo Da Vinci’s notebooks
- Helps explain bird anatomy, behaviour, and genetics
- Shows how major groups survive catastrophic events
- Helps conservationists understand resilience and vulnerability
Example
Studying dinosaur growth rings (like tree rings) helps explain why birds grow so fast compared to reptiles.
Engineering and Robotics Inspiration
Dinosaur biomechanics inspire modern design.
Why?
- Helps engineers design better robots, prosthetics, and vehicles
- Provides models for balance, movement, and weight distribution
Example
Research on T. rex balance and gait has influenced bipedal robot stability algorithms.
Advances in Technology and Scientific Methods?
Dinosaur research drives innovation in scanning, imaging, and chemical analysis.
Why it’s useful
- Improves medical imaging
- Advances forensic science
- Enhances materials science
Example
CT scanning used on dinosaur skulls is now used to diagnose human brain and sinus conditions with greater accuracy.
Education, Curiosity, and Public Engagement
Dinosaurs are a gateway into science for millions of children and adults.
- Encourages STEM learning
- Inspires future scientists
- Makes complex science accessible and exciting
Museum exhibits on dinosaurs often lead children into careers in biology, geology, or engineering?
Economic and Cultural Value
Dinosaurs generate huge economic activity.
Boosts tourism
- Supports museums, universities, and research institutions
- Drives media, books, films, and education industries
Example
The Natural History Museum in London attracts millions of visitors each year, many drawn by its dinosaur exhibits.
Studying dinosaurs helps us understand evolution, climate change, extinction, modern animals, engineering, and even human technology — they are far more than ancient curiosities.
Funding criticisms reveal how societies value science.
People who argue against dinosaur research usually fall into a few broad categories. Their objections aren’t scientific — they’re about priorities, funding, or worldview?
Dinosaurs are irrelevant to modern life (argument).
Some critics say dinosaurs are:
- too old to matter
- disconnected from current human problems
- ‘just entertainment’- rather than practical science
They see dinosaur research as:
- curiosity‑driven rather than problem‑solving
- less urgent than medicine, climate science, or engineering
When funding is tight, research that doesn’t appear to have immediate benefits is often questioned.
Too expensive for what it provides (argument)
Fieldwork, excavation, CT scanning, and museum storage all cost money.
They believe:
- the return on investment is low
- resources should go to applied sciences
- palaeontology is not essential. Leave it to the Chinese.
Nations prioritising infrastructure, healthcare, or education may see palaeontology as a luxury.
We already know enough about dinosaurs (argument)
It assumes dinosaurs are a solved mystery and shut door.
They don’t realise:
- new species are discovered every month
- dinosaur research drives advances in imaging, climate science, and evolutionary biology
- many major questions remain open
Where this argument prevails
General public, not scientific communities
This view is common among people who only encounter dinosaurs through films or museums.
It’s too speculative (argument)
Critics argue that:
- fossils are incomplete (which they are)
- reconstructions involve guesswork (it does)
- conclusions change as new evidence appears (see Maynard Keynes above).
They misunderstand how scientific inference works.
Paleontology uses:
- biomechanics
- comparative anatomy (teach in medical schools)
- geochemistry
- statistical modelling
But to uneducated outsiders, it can look like educated guessing.
Communities with low trust in science
Places where scientific literacy is low or where science is viewed with suspicion.
Conflicts with religious or cultural beliefs (arguments).
Some groups reject the idea of:
- deep time
- evolution
- Earth being billions of years old
Their worldview is based on:
- literal interpretations of religious texts
- cultural traditions that don’t include prehistoric life
Regions with strong creationist or fundamentalist traditions
In these areas, dinosaur research may be dismissed or discouraged and not funded.
It doesn’t help with immediate human problems (argument).
dinosaur research as lacking:
- not helping with disease
- not improving technology
- not solving climate change directly
Why people say this
They prioritise:
- applied science
- short‑term benefits
- economic return
Policy discussions focused on short‑term outcomes
Governments with election‑cycle thinking often undervalue long‑term research.
Developing countries.Limited budgets; focus on immediate needs
Politically conservative or fundamentalist regions. Conflict with religious beliefs; skepticism of evolutionary framing.
Governments under economic pressure. Funding prioritised for applied sciences
General public with low science literacy. Misunderstanding of paleontology’s value
Institutions focused on short‑term returns. Dinosaur research seen as low‑impact and boring.
Even where these criticisms exist, dinosaur research continues because:
- it drives innovation in imaging and analysis
- it informs climate science and extinction studies
- it teaches evolution and biodiversity
- it inspires public engagement with science
- it connects geology, biology, chemistry, and physics
In other words: dinosaurs are a gateway to understanding Earth itself and our place in it.
Creationist vs Scientific Timelines
Scientific consensus Earth is around 4.54 billion years old. Big Bang Theory.
Young‑Earth Creationism (YEC) Earth is 6,000–10,000 years old, created by God.
Old‑Earth Creationism (OEC) Earth is old, but life was created in stages by God.
Scientific: Dinosaurs lived 230–66 million years ago
YEC Dinosaurs created day 6, lived with humans
OEC Dinosaurs lived millions of years ago, before humans
Scientific consensus: Asteroid impact + volcanic activity, around 66 million years ago
YEC Most dinosaurs died in Noah’s Flood (around 4,300 years ago)
OEC Natural extinction long before humans
Adam and Eve and Dinosaurs
Humans appear 300,000 years ago, long after dinosaurs (scientific consensus)
YEC Humans and dinosaurs coexisted
OEC Humans appear long after dinosaurs, but not through evolution |
How Creationists Explain Dinosaurs (arguments)
Dinosaurs lived recently and not millions of years ago (argument)
Dinosaur fossils contain soft tissue, so they must be young.
Some YEC groups cite preserved proteins in T. rex bones.
Wee dinosaurs were on Noah’s Ark (argument)
Example: The Ark Encounter museum displays small sauropods in pens
Fossils formed during Noah’s Flood (argument)
Rapid burial during a global flood explains fossil layers.
The Morrison Formation is interpreted as flood sediment.
Dragons = dinosaurs (argument)
Ancient dragon myths reflect real encounters with dinosaurs.
Example: Chinese dragon legends or medieval European dragon art. St George battling with a dragon.
Biblical creatures were dinosaurs
Eg. ‘Behemoth’ and ‘Leviathan’ in The Book of Job describe dinosaurs.
Behemoth = sauropod; Leviathan = marine reptile eg Loch Ness Monster.
Radiometric dating is unreliable (argument)
Dating methods rely on assumptions about decay rates.
Example: Claims that volcanic rocks date incorrectly. (parameters)
Creationist explanations tend to be strongest in places where religious literalism, cultural tradition or limited science education shape public understanding and budgets.
Regions with strong biblical literalism
Most common in:
- parts of the United States (South, Midwest)
- some communities in Latin America
Christian, Jewish, and Islamic fundamentalist groups
Scriptural authority is prioritised over scientific consensus. Supernatural over natural explanations.
Areas where evolution is politically or culturally contested
Evolution is seen as conflicting with religious identity or tradition.
Countries with limited science funding or education
When science education is weak, alternative explanations fill the gap.
Communities with museums promoting creationist interpretations
Examples:
- The Creation Museum (Kentucky, USA)
- The Ark Encounter (Kentucky, USA)
These institutions reinforce YEC timelines.
Creationist explanations endure because they offer:
- a simple, unified narrative or truth
- alignment with fundamental religious identity
- a sense of certainty in an uncertain world compared to evolving scientific models
- cultural continuity
Science, by contrast, is always updating — which some people find unsettling.
Creationist groups explain dinosaurs by fitting them into a biblical timeline—often arguing that humans and dinosaurs coexisted, that fossils formed during a global flood, and that dinosaurs died out recently—and these views are most common in communities where religious literalism, cultural tradition, or limited science education outweigh scientific consensus.
Modern climate science often looks to the deep past—including the age of dinosaurs—to understand how Earth responds to major environmental changes.
Dinosaurs lived during extreme greenhouse climates
The Mesozoic era was:
• much warmer than today
• ice free at the poles
• high in CO₂
Why this matters today:
It shows how dramatically Earth can warm when greenhouse gases rise.
Scientists use this to model future warming.
Example:
Fossils of tropical dinosaurs in Alaska show that high CO₂ can create warm polar regions, which is happening now.
Mass extinctions reveal how ecosystems collapse
The end Cretaceous extinction is a case study in:
• rapid climate disruption
• food chain collapse
• long term recovery
Modern relevance:
It helps scientists understand how today’s species might respond to rapid warming.
Ancient volcanic CO₂ spikes resemble modern emissions
The Deccan Traps eruptions released huge amounts of CO₂.
Parallel today:
Scientists compare ancient volcanic warming to modern human driven emissions to understand:
• rate of warming
• ocean acidification
• extinction risk
Some, groups use dinosaurs to argue against the seriousness of modern global warming. These arguments are not scientifically supported, but they are influential in certain—mostly right-wing—communities.
Common examples.
The Earth was warmer in dinosaur times, so warming is natural (argument).
Since dinosaurs lived in a hotter world, today’s warming is just part of Earth’s natural cycle.
Example claim:
CO₂ was higher when dinosaurs lived, so high CO₂ isn’t dangerous.
Why scientists disagree:
• Past warm periods happened over millions of years
• Today’s warming is happening in decades
• Rate of change is what threatens ecosystems
Life thrived in warm climates, so warming is good (argument).
Dinosaurs flourished in warm conditions, so a warmer Earth is beneficial.
Example claim:
‘Warm periods are golden ages for life.”
Scientific response:
Warm periods support life after ecosystems adapt, but rapid warming causes extinctions.
Climate models can’t be trusted because we can’t even know dinosaur climates perfectly.
Argument:
If scientists debate dinosaur temperatures, they must not understand climate well.
Example claim:
‘Scientists can’t agree on whether dinosaurs were warm blooded, so how can they predict climate?”
Why this is misleading:
Climate modelling and dinosaur physiology are different fields; uncertainty in one doesn’t invalidate the other.
The asteroid killed the dinosaurs, not climate change (argument).
Since the extinction was caused by an asteroid, climate change isn’t a major threat.
Example:
Dinosaurs didn’t die from climate change, so climate change isn’t dangerous.
Scientific response:
The asteroid triggered catastrophic climate change—cooling, darkness, acid rain—showing how climate disruption can collapse ecosystems.
These dinosaur based climate arguments tend to appear in communities where:
Climate change is politically contested
Most common in:
• parts of the United States
• regions with strong fossil fuel industries
• political groups sceptical of environmental regulation
Dinosaurs become rhetorical tools to downplay human driven warming.
Creationist or literalist worldviews dominate
Some creationist groups reject:
• deep time
• ancient climate cycles
• evolutionary biology
Why dinosaurs matter here:
If Earth is only 6,000 years old, then:
• ancient climate change didn’t happen
• modern warming must be natural or divinely controlled
This leads to arguments like: ‘Climate scientists can’t be right about warming if they’re wrong about dinosaurs’.
Science education is limited (home schooled)
Where people have little exposure to:
• paleoclimate science
• geological timescales
• evolutionary biology
Modern thinking about global warming is linked to dinosaur debates because dinosaurs lived through extreme climates and mass extinctions, and both scientists and sceptics use them—either to understand climate risk or to argue that warming is natural or harmless.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CVBVVGD6
- celticman's blog
- Log in to post comments
- 189 reads


