Ryszard Kapuscinski (1993) Imperium.

Ryszard Kapuscinski was born in 1932 and grew up in the Polesie region on Poland (today Belorussia). Pinsk was liberated by Soviet troops in 1939. From what wasn’t clear. He learned the Cyrillic Russian alphabet as school from a single copy of Stalin’s Studies in Leninism, watched arbitrary mass deportations to Siberia and starved with his family. He remained liberated for most of his adult life and witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.  The unravelling of the Imperium: Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

Alexander Solzhenitsyn 1992.

‘The system that governs us is a combination of the old nomenclatura, the sharks of finance, false democrats, and the KGB. I cannot call this democracy—it is a repugnant historically unprecedented hybrid, and we do not know in which direction it will develop…[but] if the alliance will prevail they will be exploiting us not for seventy, but for one hundred and seventy years.’   

We do know the direction Russia took under Vladimir Putin. Kapuscinski marks out the direction of travel. He speaks of the old native Russia. His reading and understand of Bierdayev’s book as a student at university who tried to outline what the Imperium was and the paradox of what does a Russian think when he is somewhere such as the shore of the Yenisry.

‘He can walk along for days and months and always Russia will surround him. The plains have no end, nor the forests, nor the rivers. To rule over such boundless expanses, says Bierdayev, one had to create a boundless state.’

Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace showed the hubris of Napoleon and the triumph of Mother Russia. The Great Patriotic War as the Second World War was called was when the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic defeated the Nazis (that had an alliance with until 1942). There were two superpowers in the world when the war ended and America was the enemy. They fought proxy-wars, Korea at the beginning of the 1950s. Communist China, a pauper state, under Chairman Mao provided unlimited manpower and around one million troops. Soviet MIG fighters protected ground troops. General McArthur, holed up as proxy-Emperor of Japan wanted to fight on, go all the way to China, all the way to Russia. War weary, General, later President Eisenhower, divided Korea. Both superpowers had nuclear weapons. China acquired them from Russia.

The Cold War and Mutually Assured Destruction. John F. Kennedy at the end of 1962 called the Russian’s bluff over Cuban missiles. I was too young to remember. Now we’re too old to care. Then Putin, 24th February 2022 threatens nuclear war for interference over his invasion plans of Ukraine.

Ukraine has been at war with Russia for eight years. It used to be the breadbasket of Russia and exported grain to Germany, now it exports its crops to China. Its soil was so fertile it was said that if you left a stick in the ground a tree would bloom. Yet, during Stalin’s purges millions starved. Putin’s military has annexed Crimea. The second day of their full-scale invasion and troops surround the capital Kyiv. But with amphibious landings on Mariupol and Donbas.   

Kapuscinski reminds us of falling into the abyss. The massacre of around 1.5 million Armenians in Turkey in 1915, the greatest mass genocide until Hitler. Regarded as traitors and infiltrators. In Putin’s terms neo-Nazis and drug addicts.    

‘Nationalism is the forbidden fruit.’

The Chechen Wars were good wars for Putin. The use of overwhelming military force, mass murder and torture quelled the North Caucasus. Puppet government.

‘A state that does not have a state seeks salvation in symbols. The protection of the symbol is important to it as protection of borders to other states. The cult of the symbol becomes a form of the cult of the country. Protection of the symbol becomes an act of patriotism.’

Look at the map, Kapuscinski says of Aremenia, but he could also be speaking of Ukraine.  The Russian bear wants to swallow it up. But he offers another lesson.

Look at the history books, ‘A magnificent ascent, and then, a dispiriting fall’.

The West (by which we mean President Joe Biden) offers overwhelming sanctions against Russia, but not if it pushes up the price of petrol for the average American. I wonder when the backbiting will start about the four million refugees not coming into Europe, because they’re already here. Are we sliding down the same road, taking sides, picking allies? Imperium is an insider account of a refugee that’s not a refugee in the old Soviet Socialist Republics Putin thinks still exist. Keeping your mouth shut doesn’t guarantee you’ll be OK. Not taking sides is taken sides. I’m not taking sides. I hope Ukraine wins, whatever that means. But I doubt its people will. Putin will win—for now.  I don’t know what that means either.   

 

Comments

Ukraine will win becauseUkraine is free

Sadly, I don't see that as a possibility. 

 

My lad in Moscow would find this very interesting. Russia will eventually subvert Ukraine and then get bogged down in a guerrilla war which will result in them eventually withdrawing. In the meantime, we will all be victims albeit the people of Ukraine are suffering more than anyone else, just now. Narcissism knows no borders.

 

That's the trajectory we'd expect. Ukraine cannot win a ground war. The do not control the skies. Streetfighting will cost lives. But as in Aleppo Russia and Assad simply targeted anyting that moved. Hospitals in particular, communications picked up and targetted. A bloody war and even bloody ending. Raze the city, Kill the inhabitants, if they don't surrender. Or in Chechyan-Russia wars, even if they do. 

 

I am not sure what will happen. Chechnya was not going to be helped, so Putin finished the job. Ukraine might have been the same if it had been soon after the end of the Cold War, but they have had 25 years of democratic independence and cross fertilisation with the the West and the rest of the world. There are more bonds. Also the Baltic States, Poland and the rest of old Iron Curtain Eastern Europe are now in the EU and  NATO, driving policy and defence. This is their war too because Russia has dominated and is trying to come back with Putin. Probably the balance of power has changed. How strong is Russia? They have the gas and some oil, but are their soldiers and people sufficiently motivated. They have had years of democracy too, and cultural exchange. Putin is 69 now, and he is out of touch with a lot of modern change. Ukraine has probably already had a lot of success due to people power, and the willingness to fight. 

      If Putin won't go back to pre invasion borders with guarantees of Ukraine neutrality, then it may be time for NATO to build up and create that no fly zone. Sanctions should damage the Russian ruling caste's wealth and lifestyle, and an effective propaganda war reaching ordinary Russians may be enough to stop his army and supplies from functioning. Ukraine did become part of the heart of the Soviet Union, but if he cannot conquer it quickly he will never get it back. 

   The other worry is nuclear weapons, but if he is mad enough to stoop to that he needs to be removed anyway. Find some way of offering him a way out without fighting, and appeal to real Russians.

The West let Russia settle Syria their way, in bloody, destructive fashion, but the Assad government is cruel and unjust. The west would probably have warned the parties to stop fighting, split the country up and tried to police ceasefires until peace happened, in the Bosnia method of peace creation, which is a lot better than war. Iraq was not a great success for the West but it does have a relatively peaceful settlementof its own now. The West made a mistake in running from Afghanistan like that, but I suppose Taliban were just not playing ball.

    if the West had not retreated so much over Syria and Afghanistan Putin probably would not have dared to do what he is doing now in Ukraine.

A Thrid (and final) World War is a very real deanger. Russia cannot win a conventional war against NATO countries. But it can and possibly will end civilisation.